Treasure Valley Adds 150,000 Residents: Where Rental Demand Is Moving Next

Southwest Idaho has added approximately 150,000 residents since 2020, while homeownership remains out of reach for many local households. That creates a compelling foundation for rental housing—but growth does not affect every city, neighborhood or property equally.

AT A GLANCE

Ada and Canyon counties have added approximately 150,000 residents since 2020
The combined population of the two counties has reached 876,760
Meridian is now Idaho’s second-largest city, with 152,070 residents
Star’s population has grown 131% since 2020
Idaho’s average monthly rent is approximately $1,600
Ada County’s median single-family home price reached approximately $582,000 in June 2026

A NOTE FROM NATALIE

My family moved to the Treasure Valley in 1995, three years before my parents founded Commercial Northwest. We came from Tiburon, California, just across the bay from San Francisco. I was born in San Francisco, come from generations of Californians on both sides of my family, and was still in elementary school when Boise became home.

Shortly after we arrived, my uncle sent us a postcard showing covered wagons crossing the desert. He labeled one “The Lemas Family” and wrote, “How is it going out West?”

At the time, the joke didn’t feel entirely inaccurate.

We lived in Southeast Boise, only ten minutes from downtown, but our home was surrounded by cows, horses and open fields. Today, much of that area is Harris Ranch. Meridian was largely farmland, and Eagle—this still makes me laugh—I didn’t visit until after graduating from Boise High School.

Today, Southwest Idaho has added approximately 150,000 residents in just six years. Meridian is Idaho’s second-largest city, while communities like Star and Kuna are growing at rates that would have seemed unimaginable when I was young.

But growth alone does not make every property a good investment.

For more than 30 years, my family has watched the Treasure Valley transform. Since 1998, Commercial Northwest has operated properties through the Great Recession, periods of rapid construction and rent growth, pandemic-era migration and today’s higher-rate environment.

For investors looking at the Treasure Valley from outside the market, the numbers tell only part of the story. Knowing how each community has evolved, where demand is truly coming from and how properties perform through changing cycles can make all the difference.

📈 SOUTHWEST IDAHO ADDS APPROXIMATELY 150,000 RESIDENTS

New estimates from the Community Planning Association of Southwest Idaho place the combined population of Ada and Canyon counties at 876,760, up from 726,072 in the 2020 Census.

When Boise and Elmore counties are included, the four-county population reaches approximately 915,940—representing growth of more than 20% since 2020.

The region has added residents every year since the 2020 Census, and the combined population of Ada and Canyon counties has more than doubled since 1990.

This is more than a short-term migration surge. It reflects Southwest Idaho’s continued transformation into a major metropolitan area with a growing need for housing, infrastructure and employment centers.

🌱 THE GROWTH IS SPREADING OUTWARD

The Treasure Valley’s largest cities continue to add substantial numbers of residents:

Boise: 256,450
Meridian: 152,070
Nampa: 126,810
Caldwell: 82,770

But the highest percentage growth is occurring in smaller communities along the edges of the metropolitan area.

Star has grown from 11,107 residents in 2020 to approximately 24,950 in 2026—a 131% increase. Middleton has grown by more than 60%, reaching approximately 15,110 residents. In the most recent year alone, Star and Kuna each grew by approximately 14%.

For multifamily investors, this outward expansion is significant. Rental demand is no longer concentrated exclusively in Boise and Meridian. Communities such as Star, Kuna, Caldwell and Middleton may offer attractive long-term opportunities.

However, rapid population growth does not automatically translate into strong investment performance. Employment access, transportation, schools, infrastructure, competing inventory and the local development pipeline must all be considered before entering a growing submarket.

🔑 THE HOMEOWNERSHIP GAP CONTINUES TO SUPPORT RENTAL DEMAND

A recent LendingTree study found that starter homes remain unaffordable for most first-time buyers. That challenge is especially pronounced in the Treasure Valley. In June 2026, the median single-family home price in Ada County was approximately $582,000, while the median existing-home price was approximately $575,000.

Local buyers must also contend with a substantial down payment, elevated mortgage rates, property taxes, insurance and ongoing maintenance. As a result, many households that can comfortably afford rent may still be unable—or unwilling—to purchase a home in the Treasure Valley.

This creates a durable group of renters who want more than the least expensive apartment available. Many are seeking:

Additional bedrooms and storage
Garages or dedicated parking
Pet-friendly communities
Private or shared outdoor space
Proximity to schools and employment
The flexibility of renting without the financial burden of homeownership

Townhomes, larger apartments and professionally managed communities are especially well positioned to serve renters who want the space, privacy and overall experience of living in a home—without the down payment, maintenance responsibilities and financial overhead of owning one.

📊 THREE TAKEAWAYS FOR MULTIFAMILY INVESTORS

1. Population growth creates opportunity—but submarket selection matters

The region’s fastest percentage growth is occurring outside its largest cities. Investors should evaluate each submarket individually rather than treating the Treasure Valley as one uniform rental market.

Population gains must be considered alongside new construction, employment, renter demographics, infrastructure and the type of housing residents actually want.

2. The homeownership gap supports demand, but affordability still limits rent growth

Renting remains more attainable than buying for many Treasure Valley households. However, residents are still sensitive to their total monthly housing costs.

Rent increases that are not supported by a property’s condition, amenities, location or competing inventory can lead to longer vacancies and larger concessions. The opportunity is not simply to charge more—it is to understand what renters value enough to pay for.

3. Operations determine how much demand reaches the bottom line

Population growth may bring more prospective renters, but it does not automatically create stronger investment returns.

Capturing that demand requires disciplined pricing, responsive lead follow-up, effective renewal strategies, controlled maintenance costs and consistently executed unit turns. The properties that perform best will combine favorable market positioning with strong day-to-day operations.

🎯 THE BOTTOM LINE

Southwest Idaho’s population trajectory remains encouraging for multifamily investors. The region has added approximately 150,000 residents since 2020, smaller communities are expanding rapidly and homeownership remains difficult for many households.

These conditions provide a strong long-term foundation for rental housing—but the market’s next phase will reward precision more than simple participation.

The best-positioned properties will be those that understand their specific renter, remain competitively priced, deliver a strong resident experience and operate efficiently enough to protect both occupancy and cash flow.

📩 EVALUATING A TREASURE VALLEY MULTIFAMILY OPPORTUNITY?

Whether you are underwriting an acquisition or evaluating the performance of a property you already own, the right operating assumptions matter.

Commercial Northwest can help you:

Validate achievable rents and operating assumptions
Identify overlooked risks and performance opportunities
Develop a realistic management, transition or stabilization strategy

If you are evaluating a Treasure Valley acquisition—or want to know whether your current property is positioned to capture this growth—we would be happy to provide a complimentary Idaho Multifamily Asset Review.

REQUEST A COMPLIMENTARY ASSET REVIEW

I grew up watching fields become neighborhoods and small towns become thriving cities. Today, that history shapes how we evaluate every opportunity: growth may create demand, but disciplined local execution determines how much of that demand reaches the bottom line.

Warmly,
Natalie Lemas Hernandez
CEO | Commercial Northwest Property Management